Financial assets has still not recovered from the financial crash of 2008. One could argue we are still in Kondratieff Winter. But will it get better or will it get worse? Have we seen the stock market bottom in 2009? Is it safe to buy and hold stocks for the long run? Or is buy and hold dead?
In June of 2002, the terrible dot.com bust was making way for a powerful housing boom, the European Union was growing, and American involvement in the Middle East promised a “quick and easy victory.”
Yet when EWI President Robert Prechter’s first edition of Conquer the Crash published ten years ago on this date, he wrote:
- “Home equity loans are brewing a terrible disaster.”
- “What screams bubble — giant historic bubble — in real estate is the system-wide extension of massive amount of credit.”
- “The Middle East should be a complete disaster.”
- “Look for nations and states to split and shrink.”
Today, 10 years later, the U.S. housing market still hasn’t overcome its worst downturn since the Great Depression; the eurozone is in crisis, and the expected quick victory in Iraq became a drawn-out mess.
Prechter’s analysis - based on the Elliott Wave Principle and socionomics, the study of how social mood motivates social actions — enabled him to foresee these changes in the economic, social, and political landscape.
What other eye-opening forecasts do the pages of the Conquer the Crash reveal? How about:
Banks: “Banks are not just lent to the hilt, they’re past it. In a fearful market, liquidity even on these so called ’securities’ [corporate, municipal, and mortgage-backed bonds] will dry up.” (Remember the 2007-2009 “liquidity crisis”?)
Bonds: “The unprecedented mass of vulnerable bonds extant today is on the verge of a waterfall of downgrading.” (Remember the 2011 downgrade of the U.S. Treasury bonds?)
Credit: Credit expansion schemes — the primary role of the U.S. Federal Reserve Bank — “have always ended in a bust.” (Again, think back to the “credit crunch.”)
And — “Like the discomfort of drug addiction withdrawal, the discomfort of credit addiction withdrawal cannot be avoided.” (You could say that again.)
Anticipating “shocks” to the global system is a remarkable and true, decade-long achievement of Prechter’s Conquer the Crash. And on the 10th anniversary of its publication, we’d like to offer you 42 pages of excerpted material to commemorate Prechter’s work.
Kondratieff Wave is once in a 50-70 year economic cycle and when the Kondratieff Winter arrives, it produces Great Depression kind of economic depression, typically with heavy deflationary periods. Today credit and the desire for credit is still at record levels. We have a debt bubble that has not yet deflated. The worst is still ahead of us. Take the time to read Conquer the Crash to judge the evidence yourself. So far it’s predictions are coming true in great detail.