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Proof That the Fed Doesn’t Control Interest Rates Before every Fed meeting, investors and pundits wait in a state of high alert. Will the Fed raise rates? Cut them? Do nothing? They are wasting their time. The Fed doesn’t control interest rates; it’s the other way around. History shows that the T-bill market moves first… Read more FED Follows the Market |
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Investors All-In on Stocks
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Record low cash levels in pension and mutual funds. Investors are all-in on stocks. Will cash ever be king again? Chart from @elliottwaveintl’s Cool Charts Issue: [click to signup] Investors are all-in on stocks |
That Can’t Happen in the USA?
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That Can’t Happen in the US — Can It? Imagine the common stocks of residential real estate developers D.R. Horton or Lennar Corp dropping 98%. What would that imply for US real estate? Back in 2022, Elliott Wave International’s Global Market Perspective warned that China real estate developer Country Garden Holdings “is becoming a bellwether… Read more That Can’t Happen in the USA? |
Euro / USD Bottom was Predicted
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EURUSD: What the News Reported After the Fact — and What Our Subscribers Knew in Advance By Elliott Wave International Over the past six months, major currency markets have seen some dramatic moves. Mainstream financial media has largely pointed to two key drivers: The 2024 U.S. presidential election The Federal Reserve These explanations may seem… Read more Euro / USD Bottom was Predicted |
Extremes at the Peak
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‘Investors always want the most at the END of any advance’ On December 6, within two days of the Dow’s all-time high, the Elliott Wave Financial Forecast offered this unique insight: “Leverage is investors’ real-money way of expressing an extremely positive social mood, which prompts the thought, “I want more.” Investors always want the most… Read more Extremes at the Peak |
Tesla’s Troubles – Is it Musk or is it More?
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Tesla’s Troubles — Is it Musk or is it More? Tesla tumbled 15% on March 10, its biggest single day drop in more than five years. Elliott Wave International’s March Global Market Perspective provides this insight: The world’s richest man, Elon Musk, is also more vulnerable than most people realize. In March 2023, when a… Read more Tesla’s Troubles – Is it Musk or is it More? |
Stock Market Excessive Overvaluation in 2025
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Valuations Are at the Furthest Edge of the Financial Solar System Figure 1 updates our history of year-end valuations for stocks of S&P companies on two bases: price to book value (Y axis) and dividend yield (X axis). I thought the year-end 2021 overvaluation would never be surpassed. But as you can see, the year-end… Read more Stock Market Excessive Overvaluation in 2025 |
Credit Spread Blow-out Ahead
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Another Blowout Ahead for Credit Spreads? Credit investors aren’t worried about a thing. They sneer at the possibility of a recession. A slew of corporate defaults? Nah. Complacency is so extreme that Elliott Wave International’s December Global Market Perspective warned that a tipping point might be at hand: Two of the most important credit-market sentiment… Read more Credit Spread Blow-out Ahead |
FED Follows the Treasury Rates
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Will the Fed Do an About-Face in 2025? Would you like the ability to predict what the Fed will do with its fed funds rate? Just watch the bond market. Elliott Wave International’s August Financial Forecast did just that and predicted the Fed would “play catch up.” The chart below shows the current fed funds… Read more FED Follows the Treasury Rates |
Defaults Jump to Highest Level Since 2010
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Debt, Defaults and Delinquencies (Oh My!) It’s a double whammy: U.S. credit card defaults jump to the highest level since 2010 as personal savings dry up. Expectations for the months ahead are even more glum. Elliott Wave International lay it out in their November Financial Forecast: The latest New York Fed Consumer Loan Survey reveals… Read more Defaults Jump to Highest Level Since 2010 |