Category: Economy

If the Federal Reserve Board is So Smart, I’d Hate to See What Dumb Looks Like! The federal government is now spending about $1.25 trillion a year just to pay interest on the $40 trillion national debt. There are of course the usual suspects: profligate spending, bureaucracy, lack of accountability, waste. How did we get… Read more How did we get here?

Is the U.S. headed for a recession? In the history of the data back to 1959, there has never been a turndown of this magnitude without an ensuing recession. So what can you do NOW to prepare? Our friends at Elliott Wave International have put together a free report called “Preparing for Difficult Times.” It… Read more For Whom the Bell Tolls

Proof That the Fed Doesn’t Control Interest Rates Before every Fed meeting, investors and pundits wait in a state of high alert. Will the Fed raise rates? Cut them? Do nothing? They are wasting their time. The Fed doesn’t control interest rates; it’s the other way around. History shows that the T-bill market moves first… Read more FED Follows the Market

Another Blowout Ahead for Credit Spreads? Credit investors aren’t worried about a thing. They sneer at the possibility of a recession. A slew of corporate defaults? Nah. Complacency is so extreme that Elliott Wave International’s December Global Market Perspective warned that a tipping point might be at hand: Two of the most important credit-market sentiment… Read more Credit Spread Blow-out Ahead

Will the Fed Do an About-Face in 2025? Would you like the ability to predict what the Fed will do with its fed funds rate? Just watch the bond market. Elliott Wave International’s August Financial Forecast did just that and predicted the Fed would “play catch up.” The chart below shows the current fed funds… Read more FED Follows the Treasury Rates

Debt, Defaults and Delinquencies (Oh My!) It’s a double whammy: U.S. credit card defaults jump to the highest level since 2010 as personal savings dry up. Expectations for the months ahead are even more glum. Elliott Wave International lay it out in their November Financial Forecast: The latest New York Fed Consumer Loan Survey reveals… Read more Defaults Jump to Highest Level Since 2010

This is Going to Shock People!”: Avi Gilburt and Bob Prechter Chat “It’s going to make 2008 look like child’s play,” says ElliottWave Trader’s Avi Gilburt when discussing the precarious balance sheets of U.S. banks with Elliott Wave International’s Robert Prechter. In the just-released webinar “A Fireside Market Chat with Robert Prechter & Avi Gilburt,”… Read more 2008 Will Look Like Child’s Play

Deflation in China: Impossible to Ignore Producer Price Index registers 22 straight months of decline Deflation’s grip on the world’s second largest economy is getting tighter. As Bloomberg noted on Sept. 9: China’s Deflationary Spiral Is Now Entering Dangerous New Stage The demand for goods has been weakening. Wages are stagnant. And, in addition to… Read more Deflation in China

Don’t Count on Fed to Rescue Economy: Here’s Why The Fed’s September lowering of the fed funds rate was greeted with widespread celebration on Wall Street. Yet, history shows that such moves by the Fed don’t always translate into a glowing economy. Elliott Wave International’s October Financial Forecast provides perspective: The August 2 issue forecast… Read more Don’t Count on FED

This Trend Will Likely Soon Rock the U.S. Financial System Why monetary inflation has been shrinking Nearly everyone who buys groceries, fills their car tank with gas, pays rent, buys car insurance and so on is talking about the high cost of living. And it’s true that consumer price inflation is higher today than before… Read more Printed Money Supply is Deflating