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An Eye-Opening Perspective: Emerging Markets and Epidemics People across the entire planet remain very much aware of the COVID-19 health threat. The global disruption associated with the pandemic far surpasses other major health scares in modern history. Even so, you may recall 2009 news articles similar to this one from the New York Times (June… Read more Emerging Markets and Epidemics |
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Why Non-Confirmations Matter
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When a trend is strong, related markets tend to move in unison. However, when a trend is near exhaustion — a bullish or bearish trend, “non-confirmations” often occur. A non-confirmation occurs when one market makes a new high (or low), but a related market does not. As cases in point, our November Global Market Perspective… Read more Why Non-Confirmations Matter |
Is Gold at a Top?
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Gold and Silver: Pay Attention to This Noteworthy Record High Here’s what usually occurs in related financial markets when “big changes in social mood are afoot” Related financial markets tend to move together. For example, gold and silver. Or, consider stocks. When the Dow Industrials are up on a given trading day, the NASDAQ is… Read more Is Gold at a Top? |
Deflation vs the FED
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Weeks before the February top in the DJIA, the January Elliott Wave Theorist (Elliott Wave International President Robert Prechter’s monthly publication about financial markets and social trends since 1979) said: Most economists believe the Fed can prevent financial crises and depressions. [EWI’s analysts] disagree. Socionomic theory proposes that naturally fluctuating waves of social mood regulate… Read more Deflation vs the FED |
US dollar goes up in a Deflationary Crash
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The relative value of cash will necessarily zoom higher when stocks plunge. A negative sentiment toward cash had been in place for quite some time. Let’s go back a little more than a year when our Feb. 2019 Elliott Wave Theorist showed this chart and said: The average cash holding in mutual funds just fell… Read more US dollar goes up in a Deflationary Crash |
Buying the dip?
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Stocks: Why “Buying the Dip” is Fraught with Danger Investors know that the main U.S. stock indexes have tumbled very quickly. On a historical basis, some may not realize just how quickly. A March 23 Marketwatch headline referred to a “mind-bending stat”: The S&P 500 has dropped 30% from peak to trough faster than any… Read more Buying the dip? |
Did the Oil Crash Wreck the Stock Market?
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Crude oil took a 30% dive on Sunday, March 8. Yet what’s happened in oil this year is so much bigger than that headline-grabbing, one-day move. In January, oil was $64 a barrel. It hit $27.34 intraday on Monday, March 9, so the price of oil fell 57% in just two months. Talk about a… Read more Did the Oil Crash Wreck the Stock Market? |
Pension Plans Investing in Stock Market
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You Won’t Believe WHEN Pension Funds “Embraced Stocks as a Safe Investment” Pension funds were already in a highly precarious position before the DJIA’s February 12 high and the subsequent start of the high drama in stock moves. The 2018 edition of Robert Prechter’s Conquer the Crash noted: The bull market in stocks has gone… Read more Pension Plans Investing in Stock Market |
Why did the Fed cut the rates
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Think the Fed’s Emergency Rate Cut is Proactive? Think Again. You might think that the Fed’s recent, unscheduled 50 basis-point cut in the federal funds rate is a proactive move that places the central bank at the vanguard of revolutionary uses of monetary policy. But that could hardly be further from the truth. For decades… Read more Why did the Fed cut the rates |
A Long Term Look At the Stock Market
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Is Outsized Stock Returns the Norm? Below is a chart that shows the historic returns, adjusted for inflation, for the UK market for the last 200 years. It speaks for itself. It looks like a bell curve which shows the highest probable return for the stock market is -2% to +4%. If your 401k is… Read more A Long Term Look At the Stock Market |