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Wipeout! New Update on Our “Green Bond” (ESG) Forecast Excessive euphoria in financial markets is usually a big reason to be “skeptical” Environmental, Social and Governance bonds (ESG) — also called “green” bonds — are offered by companies which want to advance the causes of social justice, social inclusion and green technology. This form of… Read more Wipeout of Green Bonds |
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How to Navigate a Bear Market
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Market action this year has hurt A LOT of people. Cryptos. Meme stocks. Tech stocks. We’ve seen some huge percentage declines — all against a backdrop of historic leaps in interest rates and inflation. Lifestyles irrevocably changed, not for the better. Economists missed it. The Fed missed it. Politicians missed it. But a few folks… Read more How to Navigate a Bear Market |
NETFLIX Decline is Only the Beginning
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Netflix: Way More Room to Drop “Doubled eleven times in 19 years … then cut in half twice” The glory days of at least one of the FAANG stocks appear to be all but over — at least for now. As revenue shrinks at Netflix, more heads have rolled at the subscription-based streaming service of… Read more NETFLIX Decline is Only the Beginning |
Tech Stocks and the Dot-com “Echo”
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“Downside surprises should become the norm” The Wave Principle’s basic pattern includes five waves in the direction of the larger trend, followed by three corrective waves, as illustrated in both bull and bear markets below: You probably recall the bursting of the dot-com bubble when the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 plummeted 78% between March 2000 and… Read more Tech Stocks and the Dot-com “Echo” |
J.P. Morgan Hurricane Warning
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Economic “Hurricane”: Here’s a Take on a Bank CEO’s Warning Here’s what reached a nadir as the war in Ukraine broke out On June 1, a CNBC headline said: [Major bank CEO] says ‘brace yourself’ for an economic hurricane caused by the Fed and Ukraine war Yes, the U.S. central bank is engaging in so-called… Read more J.P. Morgan Hurricane Warning |
Stock Market is the Leading Indicator
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Why the Timing of the Next Economic Slump May Surprise — Big Time “The stock market leads GDP,” not the other way around Do you recall how many government officials, economists or bankers anticipated the severity of the “Great Recession” before late 2007 into 2009? Do you recall even one? If a name doesn’t come… Read more Stock Market is the Leading Indicator |
Scary Part Just Ahead
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Stocks: Is the Really Scary Part Just Ahead? Here’s one of the actions which investors take when they get “rattled” Big daily selloffs have occurred since the stock market’s downtrend began in January. For instance, on May 18, the Dow Industrials closed lower by 1,161 points — a 3.6% drop. The S&P 500 shed 4%… Read more Scary Part Just Ahead |
The Reversal in Interest Rates
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Interest Rates: The Warning That Few Wanted to Heed Here’s an update on this “hugely dangerous bet” Back in mid-2020, a common sentiment toward interest rates was that they would stay historically low for the foreseeable future. Indeed, in July of that year, no less than the Bank of Canada governor said (BNN Bloomberg): ‘Interest… Read more The Reversal in Interest Rates |
Are Stocks Overvalued?
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Are stocks overvalued? A quick look at the long term perspective. Take a minute and look at a valuation chart for the stock market: What we have here on the X axis is the bond yield/stock yield ratio for the S&P 400 companies. Sounds fancy, but all it means is that the further you go… Read more Are Stocks Overvalued? |
Most Funds Ill Prepared for Bear Market
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Why Most Equity Mutual Funds Are (Again) Ill-Prepared for a Bear Market Professional money managers herd “right along with other speculators” Is a bear market already underway in the U.S.? Only time will tell for sure. What is known is that the Dow Industrials and S&P 500 index topped in January and the NASDAQ registered… Read more Most Funds Ill Prepared for Bear Market |