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Why You Should Be Leery of the 60 / 40 Portfolio “The tidal wave of risk assumption … may be turning” Many investors allocate a percentage of their portfolios to bonds to cushion against a drop in the stock market. A popular allocation is a 60 / 40 mix of stocks and bonds. However, this… Read more Stocks and Bonds Can Fall in Tandem |
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Will the Greatest Depression Start in Europe?
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Will the “Greatest Depression” Start in Europe? This action by investors resulted in “the highest total since 2014, and probably ever” Many people are familiar with the Great Depression of the early 1930s, but most of them may not know that this economic calamity began in Europe before arriving in the U.S., as a past… Read more Will the Greatest Depression Start in Europe? |
Daily Sentiment Index Extreme Says Volatility Is Next
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Why You Should Expect a Pickup in Stock-Market Volatility “Traders are convinced the market volatility will remain subdued” When things get quiet in a horror movie, that’s when you need to really brace yourself. The monster or the killer will soon be on the scene. That’s a close enough analogy to what can happen in… Read more Daily Sentiment Index Extreme Says Volatility Is Next |
Only the Few Can Get Out at The Top
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Severe Bear Market: Will You Be Among the Prepared 1.5%? “Oftentimes, rallies will end with an inter-index non-confirmation” A long-long time ago in a galaxy far away… errr, on the heels of the year 2000 dot-com crash, to be exact — which is ancient history for many investors today — the February 2003 Elliott Wave… Read more Only the Few Can Get Out at The Top |
Crypto Winter Update
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Cryptos: Welcome to the “Lunatic Fringe” A crypto hedge fund going all the way down to $0 is one way you know it’s “a Grand Supercycle peak” The bankruptcy of crypto broker Voyager Digital has been widely reported. Now, another crypto investment “bites the dust.” This time — it’s Three Arrows Capital (3AC) — a… Read more Crypto Winter Update |
Wipeout of Green Bonds
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Wipeout! New Update on Our “Green Bond” (ESG) Forecast Excessive euphoria in financial markets is usually a big reason to be “skeptical” Environmental, Social and Governance bonds (ESG) — also called “green” bonds — are offered by companies which want to advance the causes of social justice, social inclusion and green technology. This form of… Read more Wipeout of Green Bonds |
How to Navigate a Bear Market
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Market action this year has hurt A LOT of people. Cryptos. Meme stocks. Tech stocks. We’ve seen some huge percentage declines — all against a backdrop of historic leaps in interest rates and inflation. Lifestyles irrevocably changed, not for the better. Economists missed it. The Fed missed it. Politicians missed it. But a few folks… Read more How to Navigate a Bear Market |
NETFLIX Decline is Only the Beginning
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Netflix: Way More Room to Drop “Doubled eleven times in 19 years … then cut in half twice” The glory days of at least one of the FAANG stocks appear to be all but over — at least for now. As revenue shrinks at Netflix, more heads have rolled at the subscription-based streaming service of… Read more NETFLIX Decline is Only the Beginning |
Tech Stocks and the Dot-com “Echo”
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“Downside surprises should become the norm” The Wave Principle’s basic pattern includes five waves in the direction of the larger trend, followed by three corrective waves, as illustrated in both bull and bear markets below: You probably recall the bursting of the dot-com bubble when the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 plummeted 78% between March 2000 and… Read more Tech Stocks and the Dot-com “Echo” |
J.P. Morgan Hurricane Warning
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Economic “Hurricane”: Here’s a Take on a Bank CEO’s Warning Here’s what reached a nadir as the war in Ukraine broke out On June 1, a CNBC headline said: [Major bank CEO] says ‘brace yourself’ for an economic hurricane caused by the Fed and Ukraine war Yes, the U.S. central bank is engaging in so-called… Read more J.P. Morgan Hurricane Warning |