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Why the Timing of the Next Economic Slump May Surprise — Big Time “The stock market leads GDP,” not the other way around Do you recall how many government officials, economists or bankers anticipated the severity of the “Great Recession” before late 2007 into 2009? Do you recall even one? If a name doesn’t come… Read more Stock Market is the Leading Indicator |
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Scary Part Just Ahead
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Stocks: Is the Really Scary Part Just Ahead? Here’s one of the actions which investors take when they get “rattled” Big daily selloffs have occurred since the stock market’s downtrend began in January. For instance, on May 18, the Dow Industrials closed lower by 1,161 points — a 3.6% drop. The S&P 500 shed 4%… Read more Scary Part Just Ahead |
The Reversal in Interest Rates
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Interest Rates: The Warning That Few Wanted to Heed Here’s an update on this “hugely dangerous bet” Back in mid-2020, a common sentiment toward interest rates was that they would stay historically low for the foreseeable future. Indeed, in July of that year, no less than the Bank of Canada governor said (BNN Bloomberg): ‘Interest… Read more The Reversal in Interest Rates |
Are Stocks Overvalued?
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Are stocks overvalued? A quick look at the long term perspective. Take a minute and look at a valuation chart for the stock market: What we have here on the X axis is the bond yield/stock yield ratio for the S&P 400 companies. Sounds fancy, but all it means is that the further you go… Read more Are Stocks Overvalued? |
Most Funds Ill Prepared for Bear Market
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Why Most Equity Mutual Funds Are (Again) Ill-Prepared for a Bear Market Professional money managers herd “right along with other speculators” Is a bear market already underway in the U.S.? Only time will tell for sure. What is known is that the Dow Industrials and S&P 500 index topped in January and the NASDAQ registered… Read more Most Funds Ill Prepared for Bear Market |
Stock Buybacks Peak at the Top
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Peaking stock buybacks is consistent with the early stage of a long bear market. Intraday on April 27, the S&P 500 is trading 12.10% lower than it was at the start of the year. Right — not a huge setback — but negative nonetheless. Of course, it’s always possible that this is just the start… Read more Stock Buybacks Peak at the Top |
Why Is the Stock Market Falling?
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“Why Is the Stock Market Falling?” — (Not Because of These Reasons) Financial journalists almost always mention “reasons” for a given day’s market action. For example, on April 22, an intraday Marketwatch headline gave two reasons for that day’s plummeting prices: Why is the stock market falling? Dow drops over 500 points as investors weigh… Read more Why Is the Stock Market Falling? |
Why US Housing Market is Set to Decline
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Pending home sales provide a reminder of 2005-2006 Most everyone knows that the housing market has been booming in the U.S. However, if history is a guide, expect U.S. home prices to significantly decline. Why? Well, pending home sales have slowed. And the trend in home sales tends to lead the trend in home prices.… Read more Why US Housing Market is Set to Decline |
NFTs and Tulip Mania
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Non-Fungible Tokens (NFTs): A Replay of Holland’s “Tulip Mania”? The NFT Index is down more than 55% from its November high. It seems the financial world has gone a little crazy — maybe a lot crazy. Specifically, I’m talking about non-fungible tokens or NFTs for short. You may be familiar with them, but in case… Read more NFTs and Tulip Mania |
Is War Negative for Stocks?
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Here’s what really drives the trends of global stock markets Let’s first state the obvious: war is tragic as it brings death and destruction. But does war make the stock market go down? Many observers seem to believe so. Here are some Feb. 22 headlines: U.S. stocks fall sharply as Russia sends troops into breakaway… Read more Is War Negative for Stocks? |