Category: Economy

Why You Should Expect a Once-in-a-Lifetime Debt Crisis U.S. credit card debt surpasses $1 trillion On a national level, a debt crisis occurs when a country is unable to pay back its government debt. This might result from government spending exceeding tax revenues for an extended period. On an individual level, a crisis can result… Read more Once in a Lifetime Debt Crisis

Interest Rates: From 0% to Above 5% — to …? “The lines in the chart will turn up, and no policy will stop it” As you’re probably aware, many people who want to borrow to make a major purchase like a house or a car are bemoaning higher interest rates. It wasn’t so long ago… Read more Interest Rates

How Germany’s Economy is Turning Ugly This economic gauge “dipped back below zero in less than a year” In November 2020, when fears were rampant over a second wave of the coronavirus pandemic, the president of the European Central Bank called for economic stimulus (Reuters): Facing gloomy outlook, Lagarde calls for unlocking EU aid In… Read more German Economy is Broken

More Banks Could Collapse — A Lot More This ETF “continues to make lower lows” It’s sobering to reflect on the fact that the second, third and fourth largest bank failures in U.S. history have all occurred in just the past few months. They are First Republic, Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank of New… Read more More Banks Could Fail

Credit Suisse: How the Price of Credit-Default Swaps Provided a Warning “… exceeded every high-water mark … of the past 15 years” Credit-default swaps were invented in the mid-1990s but a lot of people did not become aware of them until around 2000, and that awareness increased dramatically during the 2008 financial crisis. As you… Read more Credit Default Swaps Provide Warning

U.S. Money Supply Deflates 2% Annually (What That Means) The debt bomb implodes: Expect recession and deflation Many pundits have expressed worry about the ramifications of global debt — and rightly so. As the Wall Street Journal noted toward the end of 2022: The world has amassed $290 trillion of debt and it’s getting more… Read more M2 Money Supply Deflates

Why the Recession Consensus Might Be Too Optimistic “Major stock market declines lead directly to…” The verdict seems to be in: The economy is headed for a recession. These headlines from the past few months show what I’m talking about: A 2023 recession would mean job losses for most industries … (USA Today, Feb. 3)… Read more Recession Consensus Might Be Too Optimistic

Why the Threat of Deflation is Real “The Federal Reserve is forging ahead with its balance sheet reduction” I know — inflation has been grabbing all the headlines for a good while now — so you may wonder why the subject of deflation is relevant. First, the definitions of inflation and deflation go beyond commonly… Read more Deflation Threat

Major Fed Myth: Debunked The Fed is reactive in setting rates – not proactive The days of near-zero interest rates are long gone — at least for now. As we look back on 2022, we know that it’s been a year of rising interest rates, and many observers say it’s all due to the Fed.… Read more FED Follows Treasury Rates Again

“Banks are becoming more cautious about lending” And the implications are bigger than just getting a loan Robert Prechter’s Last Chance to Conquer the Crash discusses the psychological aspect of a deflation: When the trend of social mood changes from optimism to pessimism, creditors, debtors, investors, producers and consumers all change their primary orientation from… Read more Tighter Lending Standards for Bank Loans

Why Investors in U.S. Treasuries Face Major Risk Rising rates will be “disastrous” for governments, other debtors and creditors The market for U.S. Treasuries is the biggest bond market in the world, and it appears that potentially big trouble may be afoot. Earlier this month, none other than the U.S. Treasury Secretary herself (Janet Yellen)… Read more Investors in US Treasuries Face Major Risk

Will the “Greatest Depression” Start in Europe? This action by investors resulted in “the highest total since 2014, and probably ever” Many people are familiar with the Great Depression of the early 1930s, but most of them may not know that this economic calamity began in Europe before arriving in the U.S., as a past… Read more Will the Greatest Depression Start in Europe?

Economic “Hurricane”: Here’s a Take on a Bank CEO’s Warning Here’s what reached a nadir as the war in Ukraine broke out On June 1, a CNBC headline said: [Major bank CEO] says ‘brace yourself’ for an economic hurricane caused by the Fed and Ukraine war Yes, the U.S. central bank is engaging in so-called… Read more J.P. Morgan Hurricane Warning

Why the Timing of the Next Economic Slump May Surprise — Big Time “The stock market leads GDP,” not the other way around Do you recall how many government officials, economists or bankers anticipated the severity of the “Great Recession” before late 2007 into 2009? Do you recall even one? If a name doesn’t come… Read more Stock Market is the Leading Indicator

Interest Rates: The Warning That Few Wanted to Heed Here’s an update on this “hugely dangerous bet” Back in mid-2020, a common sentiment toward interest rates was that they would stay historically low for the foreseeable future. Indeed, in July of that year, no less than the Bank of Canada governor said (BNN Bloomberg): ‘Interest… Read more The Reversal in Interest Rates

Non-Fungible Tokens (NFTs): A Replay of Holland’s “Tulip Mania”? The NFT Index is down more than 55% from its November high. It seems the financial world has gone a little crazy — maybe a lot crazy. Specifically, I’m talking about non-fungible tokens or NFTs for short. You may be familiar with them, but in case… Read more NFTs and Tulip Mania

Here’s what “leads” the effective federal funds rate Forbes magazine summed up the Fed’s January statement this way (Jan. 26): The federal funds rate remains on hold at zero to 0.25% for now, bond purchases should end in March — and then it’s time to raise rates. The speculation on Wall Street is that the… Read more Does the FED Determine the Trend of Interest Rates?

Why U.S. Corporate Bankruptcies Could Skyrocket “U.S. bankruptcies in the first quarter of 2021 and all of 2020 were above the 13-year average” An April 17 article headline on the website of National Public Radio says: U.S Economy Looking Good As Spending Jumps In March And, on April 29, The New York Times said: Americans’… Read more Corporate Bankruptcies