You may agree that today, “hopeful” describes how most investors feel. Everyone is invested to the last penny!
Hopeful that the pandemic will finally go away. Hopeful that Washington will do more good than harm. Hopeful that inflation will fall, and employment will rise.
And, hopeful that stocks will keep rising if investors get their wish list above. But they’re looking at the wrong thing.
Stocks couldn’t care less about a “strong economy,” or anything else on that list, either.
If anyone raises an eyebrow at that, ask them to explain how in March 2020, when the economy was literally shut down and people were collectively freaked out, stocks bottomed and haven’t looked back for a year and a half?
No, something else drives the stock market. From our friends at Elliott Wave International’s 40-plus years’ experience, they know exactly what it is: Investor psychology. And they have a good idea where it’s headed next.
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“I don’t want to hear about it.”
During a mania, “no prudent professional is perceived to add value”
“I don’t want to hear about it.”
That’s the general response from many new retail investors here in 2021 when a veteran stock market observer expresses any hint of caution about the stock market.
This lack of respect for sober reflections about the market has been exhibited before.
Indeed, as far back as 1997, in a Special Report titled “Bulls, Bears and Manias,” The Elliott Wave Theorist, a monthly publication which provides analysis of financial markets and cultural trends, said:
“A very human aspect of manias is that no prudent professional is perceived to add value. Indeed, the professional with a knowledge of history and value is eventually judged as an impediment to success.”
Today’s newbie investors are exhibiting this attitude in spades as expressed by the Wall Street Journal (Aug. 27):
Young investors are turning to a new generation of stock pickers — many without formal training — for advice. … Staying popular means never criticizing a meme stock.
Yes, one of the keys to social media success for non-professional dispensers of stock picking advice is to always be bullish.
This ties in perfectly with the widespread sentiment among their social media followers that the market always goes up.
The October Elliott Wave Financial Forecast, a monthly publication which covers major U.S. financial markets, mentioned yet another financial mania trait:
Back in January 2000, the Elliott Wave Financial Forecast noted, “professionals and institutions that used to know better now pander to the stock-market dreams of the little guy.” This time they’re not just pandering with comments about a new era of retail dominance. Now the pros are copying the strategies of the little guy.
Getting back to the idea that the market always goes up, the only thing it will take for this maniacal mindset to be dramatically altered is a bear market.
Keep in mind that the current uptrend has extended for more than 12 years. Even so, as just discussed, investor psychology is even more extreme than 2000, or 2007, for that matter.
Now is the time to learn what the Elliott wave model has to say about the stock market’s price pattern so you can prepare for what will take many investors — both professionals and novices — by surprise.
Right now, you can see EWI’s U.S. market insights and analysis absolutely FREE.
Now through November 3, EWI is opening the doors to their flagship Financial Forecast Service. This is their most popular FreePass event ($411 value). That’s for good reason. See why when you get your FreePass now.