Crashing oil is all over the news. Mainstream media tells us why the oil fell. And we keep hearing that it will continue to fall. But back in June all we heard was why the oil was destined for new highs. Why is the new so useless?
Because 99% of oil forecasts out there are based on so-called fundamentals. The same “fundamentals” that back in June, when oil cost $107 a barrel, promised even higher prices due to:
- The rising threat of Islamic State in Iraq
- Weak U.S. dollar and
- Strong U.S. job growth
Now that oil has fallen to $54, the same sources are giving you “reasons” why it should fall even more.
You can see what’s happening: Too many analysts simply extrapolate yesterday’s trend into tomorrow.
That’s like saying that because it’s sunny today, expect sun tomorrow, too. That’s not forecasting.
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