Interest Rates: The Warning That Few Wanted to Heed
Here’s an update on this “hugely dangerous bet”
Back in mid-2020, a common sentiment toward interest rates was that they would stay historically low for the foreseeable future.
Indeed, in July of that year, no less than the Bank of Canada governor said (BNN Bloomberg):
‘Interest rates will be low for a long time’: Macklem
The next month, in August 2020, a Wall Street Journal headline used more dramatic language than “foreseeable future”:
Low Rates Forever!
In the same month and year, one chief investment officer also used the word “forever” in regard to low rates by saying, “We are moving from low for longer to low forever.”
The reason the mainstream was SO convinced was simple: 2020 was the first year of the pandemic, and it was widely believed that low rates would have to stay “forever” to “stimulate the economy.”
So, the July 2020 Elliott Wave Financial Forecast, a monthly publication which offers analysis of major U.S. financial markets, was going squarely against the prevailing sentiment toward interest rates when it showed this chart and said:
The declining line in blue on this chart is the Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Aggregate Corporate Bond Yield, which is at a record low 2.15%. The rising line in red is the Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Aggregate Corporate Duration, which is at a record high 8.6. Bond duration is a measure of how sensitive prices are to a move in interest rates. … Bond investors are now making a hugely dangerous bet that interest rates will stay low forever.
Fast forward to the April 2022 Elliott Wave Financial Forecast. Here’s a chart which shows you what has happened since that July 2020 analysis:
The chart updates both corporate yields and corporate durations. Corporate yields declined slightly further, to an all-time low at 1.74% on December 31, 2020, but they have since surged to 3.76%, more than doubling.
So much for the “low forever” sentiment.
Indeed, on April 14, a Bloomberg headline said:
Corporate Bond Rout is So Severe History Books Need a Revision
And, relatedly, on May 2, a CNBC headline noted:
10-year Treasury yield tops 3% for first time since 2018
And, given the Fed has historically followed the market, another CNBC headline — this one from May 4 — is not surprising:
Fed raises rates by half a percentage point — the biggest hike in two decades — to fight inflation
Now is the time to learn what Elliott wave analysis reveals about what to expect next for bond yields (or interest rates).
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Here’s a quote from this Wall Street classic:
Although it is the best forecasting tool in existence, the Wave Principle is not primarily a forecasting tool; it is a detailed description of how markets behave. Nevertheless, that description does impart an immense amount of knowledge about the market’s position within the behavioral continuum and therefore about its probable ensuing path. The primary value of the Wave Principle is that it provides a context for market analysis. This context provides both a basis for disciplined thinking and a perspective on the market’s general position and outlook. At times, its accuracy in identifying, and even anticipating, changes in direction is almost unbelievable.
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