Category: Economy

Economic “Hurricane”: Here’s a Take on a Bank CEO’s Warning Here’s what reached a nadir as the war in Ukraine broke out On June 1, a CNBC headline said: [Major bank CEO] says ‘brace yourself’ for an economic hurricane caused by the Fed and Ukraine war Yes, the U.S. central bank is engaging in so-called… Read more J.P. Morgan Hurricane Warning

Why the Timing of the Next Economic Slump May Surprise — Big Time “The stock market leads GDP,” not the other way around Do you recall how many government officials, economists or bankers anticipated the severity of the “Great Recession” before late 2007 into 2009? Do you recall even one? If a name doesn’t come… Read more Stock Market is the Leading Indicator

Interest Rates: The Warning That Few Wanted to Heed Here’s an update on this “hugely dangerous bet” Back in mid-2020, a common sentiment toward interest rates was that they would stay historically low for the foreseeable future. Indeed, in July of that year, no less than the Bank of Canada governor said (BNN Bloomberg): ‘Interest… Read more The Reversal in Interest Rates

Non-Fungible Tokens (NFTs): A Replay of Holland’s “Tulip Mania”? The NFT Index is down more than 55% from its November high. It seems the financial world has gone a little crazy — maybe a lot crazy. Specifically, I’m talking about non-fungible tokens or NFTs for short. You may be familiar with them, but in case… Read more NFTs and Tulip Mania

Here’s what “leads” the effective federal funds rate Forbes magazine summed up the Fed’s January statement this way (Jan. 26): The federal funds rate remains on hold at zero to 0.25% for now, bond purchases should end in March — and then it’s time to raise rates. The speculation on Wall Street is that the… Read more Does the FED Determine the Trend of Interest Rates?

Why U.S. Corporate Bankruptcies Could Skyrocket “U.S. bankruptcies in the first quarter of 2021 and all of 2020 were above the 13-year average” An April 17 article headline on the website of National Public Radio says: U.S Economy Looking Good As Spending Jumps In March And, on April 29, The New York Times said: Americans’… Read more Corporate Bankruptcies

Cryptos: What the “Bizarre” World of Non-Fungible Tokens May Be Signaling The world of cryptos includes something known as non-fungible tokens, which go by the acronym NFTs. If you’re unfamiliar with them, they’re a bit bizarre but quite simple. Here’s what the April Global Market Perspective, a monthly Elliott Wave International publication which covers 50+… Read more Non-Fungible Tokens Mania

If raising money doesn’t get any easier than this, what’s next? The latest data from Refinitiv shows that companies have raised a record $140 billion in the U.S. dollar junk bond market during the first quarter of this year. That beats the previous record set during the second quarter last year when companies scrambled to… Read more Record High Junk Bond Demand

What the “Sudden, Dramatic” Surge in Googling “Inflation” Tells You It likely “typifies the end of an old economic trend and the beginning of a new one” In the news, you hear that the big monetary fear these days is the prospect for a jump in inflation. Here are some headlines since the start of… Read more Inflation or Deflation?

Global Tipping Point: “Good” Debt Vs. “Bad” Debt (Which is Winning?) All major U.S. economic depressions were “set off” by this single factor! Isn’t all debt “bad”? Well, in a word, no. Broadly speaking, there are two types of debt. One of them actually adds value to the economy if handled in the right way,… Read more Debt: Precursor to an Economic Depression